Ambassador's Remarks
Security, Democracy and Prosperity
ARI Conference on Democratization and Security in Central Eurasia
Ambassador Ross Wilson
Istanbul, June 14, 2007
Assistant Secretary General Babst, distinguished speakers, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. It is an honor to be one of the opening speakers today. I would like to thank ARI for the opportunity to be with you and for organizing this conference.
The title of this two-day event, Democratization and Security in Central Eurasia, ties together what I think are critical challenges in a part of the world that is most pivotal at the start of the 21st Century for the interests of the United States, Turkey and the future of free peoples around the world.
In the 1990s, I participated in a conference on the consequences of the Soviet Union’s collapse. The hot topic was what some referred to as an emerging “arc of instability,” the crescent of countries from Central Asia through Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran, the Caspian and Caucasus regions, and the perennially unstable Middle East. We do not use the term “arc of instability” too much anymore. I am not sure why. Perhaps it is because the concerns we had about an emerging arc of instability became a reality of terrorism, war and instability. After September 11, 2001, our thinking changed from anxiety about a worrisome region to confronting instability and building a longer-term basis for peace and stability in specific countries.
I have entitled my remarks today Security, Democracy and Prosperity because I see these thins as a virtuous, interlocking and self-reinforcing agenda that may be hard, but is the only real hope for the region and for our future as people living together. It is the antidote to fragile, weak and insecure states; autocratic regimes that feast on conflict and repression, and poverty and isolation from the global economy that are self-reinforcing recipes for failure that can threaten our security.
In Afghanistan, there will be no real prospect for economic development or strong democratic institutions without security. But by the same token, there will not be much security unless an economic base is developed that doesn’t depend on poppies and people decide they can obtain effective redress for their grievances and concerns through the political process, as opposed to through the barrel of a gun. So it goes in Central Asia, in Iran and Iraq, and more or less throughout the region and the world. Prosperity, democracy and security go hand-in-hand in creating a strong, more stable future. Where one element is missing or distorted, stability, public welfare and long-term peace suffer.
With those introductory thoughts, I will turn to the three baskets of issues that are the agenda for this conference.
The Iran Nuclear Problem
Let me begin with Iran and its efforts to acquire nuclear weapons, which the organizers of this conference wisely put first and foremost on our program today. The UN Security Council, International Atomic Energy Agency, the United States and many others are concerned that Iran is developing a nuclear weapons capability. It has also developed ballistic missiles, and some evidence points to Iranian work on how to get a nuclear weapon into a missile warhead. An Iran so equipped will constitute a grave, direct threat to all of us. It represents an indirect challenge as well, because Iran’s actions undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) whose demise can only drag the world toward unthinkable violence.
The United States and probably most other countries recognize Iran’s right to a peaceful, civil nuclear energy program under the terms of the NPT. The NPT provides for IAEA help to signatory states to develop such programs, which assistance Iran has received. However, along with rights under the NPT come responsibilities. Key among these are obligations to forgo the pursuit of nuclear weapons and to allow IAEA monitoring of a country’s nuclear activities. But for over 18 years, Iran hid its nuclear weapons development program from the world. It carried out extensive efforts to develop nuclear weapons technology and other activities that the IAEA concludes have no rational explanation except as building blocks for nuclear weapons development.
Since Iran’s clandestine nuclear program was exposed in 2003, we have worked very closely with our allies and friends, including especially our partners in the UN Security Council, to call Iran to account in the IAEA. The international community has encouraged it to come clean on its purposes and to bring itself into compliance with its NPT commitments. Together, we took two key steps in the last 12 months.
First, as a carrot, the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany gave Iran a far-reaching set of proposals one year ago. These six countries, including the United States, offered to develop cooperation in political, economic and nuclear areas that would be of significant benefit to Iran. We asked in return for a commitment by Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment-related and reprocessing activities and to cooperate fully with the IAEA. Regrettably, Iran has yet to accept this offer. It remains on the table as a way for Iran to change course and negotiate with us and with others an entirely new relationship based on reintegration into the community of nations.
Second, as a stick – and faced with Iran’s disregard for its international nuclear obligations, the Security Council passed unanimous resolutions in December 2006 and March 2007 that called on Iran to change course and imposed graduated sanctions for its failure to do so. Iran can still reconsider. We hope it will. We hope it will say yes to the proposal put forward by the Security Council Perm-5 plus Germany. We hope it will enter into negotiations with us. Secretary of State Rice has said she will meet with her Iranian counterpart anytime, anywhere to negotiate on the basis of the proposal put forward last June, and I can reiterate that commitment today.
Beyond UN sanctions, the United States has taken the initiative to engage other governments and private firms on the risks of doing business with an Iran under global sanction, which is a real sign of unreliability and risk. A number of major international banks have now reduced their business with Iran. We are encouraging governments in Europe and Asia to cut back the official export credits they provide – at taxpayer expense (some $22 billion worth among OECD countries). Iran is understanding that its activities in defiance of the world have real consequences. We hope they draw the appropriate conclusions.
Turkey’s relationship with its eastern neighbor is an old and complex one. Important interests are at stake. Turkey’s leaders also well understand the threat that a nuclear-armed, missile-equipped Iran will pose. We appreciate their engagement with Tehran to encourage acceptance of the June 2006 offer, urge adherence to the NPT, and call for full transparency with the IAEA.
Tehran has embarked on a dangerous course, defying its obligations under international law; disregarding calls from the IAEA and the Security Council for suspension of its enrichment activities; appalling the world with irresponsible rhetoric about wiping others “off the map;” supplying terrorists in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere; and dragging the country further into autocracy, isolation and poverty. The right course is for the Iranians to pursue policies that will really enhance security, including cooperation with their neighbors and the world. Iran can embrace real democracy by allowing genuinely competitive elections, respecting the right of free speech, and adhering to the rule of law. It can work toward prosperity by integrating with the world economy – from which its present actions exclude it – and investing the country’s energy wealth in the Iranian people’s future, rather than weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and fear.
Afghanistan
Second, Afghanistan. Let us remember some history: a Soviet-sponsored coup followed by a military invasion in 1979; Western-backed rebellion that drove out the Soviets; and then, after further struggle, terrifying rule by the Taliban that turned Afghanistan into in inward-looking, irrational pariah. Having labored to end the Soviet occupation throughout the 1980s, the world – and here I include the United States – essentially turned its back. September 11, 2001 dramatically awoke us to the reality that the stability of the Taliban’s Afghanistan was phony and that the country had been converted into an incubator for terrorists.
Our fall 2001 invasion is well known, too. We and our allies quickly swept the Taliban from power. By the end of the year, the country was free, but there was no government. There were no institutions. There was little physical infrastructure to build upon. The country did not require so much reconstruction as construction. We and others set about to assist the Afghan people to stand up new institutions, to build new security forces, to develop new infrastructure, to revive the economy, and to do these things throughout the country.
Security is key. Afghanistan lived for 25 years as a culture where you protected yourself first, because you had no idea whether you would have a job – or a government, or be alive to protect your family – in the next year. The insurgency still exists. It is losing, and the country’s culture is changing, but it is a long, tough task. Compared to last year, there are more troops, more police, more government, more roads, and more progress.
The economy is another key. Poor farmers with no other prospects are not stupid when they opt to grow poppies. They need a choice. International assistance is obviously essential, and the United States, the European Union, Japan, the World Bank and many other countries and institutions are providing help. This includes infrastructure, education, market and small business development, and trade assistance. Afghanistan’s economy needs to become better integrated with the world economy. This is not easy, given the country’s location. The newly independent Central Asian states can be synergistic partners with Afghanistan. Energy trade, to which I will refer in a minute, is one way of doing that. Throughout the country, we see more development, more economic opportunity, and a more legitimate economy; much work remains.
The third key is democracy. Perhaps the world’s most impressive work in Afghanistan has been helping the country’s leaders to foster consensual government, personal liberty and respect for human rights, representative institutions and finally democratic elections that have produced President Karzai and the country’s first freely elected parliament in over thirty years.
As allies, the United States and Turkey have worked closely together to help the Afghan people build a secure, democratic, and prosperous future for themselves. Turkey has nearly 1000 troops in Afghanistan today. Many here know of its command of the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF), its current leadership of the regional ISAF command around Kabul and of a Provincial Reconstruction Team in Wardak province, and its $100 million in development aid for hospitals, schools, roads, economic development and other projects.
Afghanistan’s future depends in part on Pakistan, and Turkey has joined the United States and others in working with President Karzai and President Musharraf to improve cross-border relations. We appreciate Turkey’s role in bringing the two leaders to Ankara in April where they reaffirmed their commitment to cooperate on regional development and in combating terrorists. Senior-level representatives from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Turkey should meet later this year to further this effort.
The world is impressed by the progress that Afghanistan is making. No one wants a return of the Taliban and state-wide oppression and terror. As Afghan security, democracy and prosperity take hold, the world will be a freer and more peaceful place.
East-West Energy
Let me finally turn to energy. Here we have two interests. One I will touch briefly on – the world’s interest in additional energy supplies. This has drawn the United States, Russia, China, the European Union and its member states, Norway, Japan, Malaysia, Brazil and others to the Caspian and Central Asia. This foreign interest means foreign investment, and it is a boon for the region. Our second interests in Caspian/Central Asian energy is as a vehicle to help these new states to thrive and succeed.
These countries achieved independence from a collapsed USSR impoverished, with weak market and governing institutions, and victims of idiotic Soviet central planning and poor (or non-existent) investment strategies. Ill-prepared to stand on their own, these countries grasped for a resource stream to help them survive, and energy was an obvious ticket.
I am proud of the role of the United States and I personally played – with Turkey in the lead – in developing the region’s energy. We have tried to help governments in the region make the right domestic policy choices to foster energy development and transit. We have worked with them and the private sector to get built and diversify the region’s infrastructure to get its energy to market via competitive means.
The accomplishments are obvious. Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field is now a major world producer, along with Azerbaijan’s Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field in the Caspian. Shah Deniz is coming on stream. Kashegan is coming. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline has helped unlock Kazakh resources, just as Baku-Supsa and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan – a “pipedream” that many ridiculed – are providing market access for large, new volumes of Azeri and Kazakh oil. The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum, or South Caucasus, gas pipeline, is becoming functional. Progress is being made on the Turkey-Greece-Italy and Nabucco transit projects to bring Caspian/Central Asian and possibly also Iraqi gas to markets in Europe.
Some wrongly think our effort is anti-Russian. Russia will certainly remain a critical source of investment and transit for Central Asian gas and a major supplier to Europe. If it does so in a more competitive environment, we will all be better off.
Turkey is a key partner in all this work, as it has been since we first started our energy engagement in the region in the early 1990s. It is already a key oil transit country, and that role may increase if Turkey's Samsun-Ceyhan bypass pipeline proposal succeeds, as we hope it can. Turkey will become a key gas transit country, and we are encouraging work to develop an attractive inter-governmental and commercial framework to ensure that off-shore work and transport infrastructure can be financed and built. This should include not just Azerbaijan but eastern Caspian producers, as well. Looking ahead, perhaps one day there will be north-south energy trade that Afghanistan could be a beneficiary of, as well.
Conclusion
Building security, democracy and prosperity is hard work, but the task is not impossible. Look at post-World War II Europe or the immense progress made in Southeast Asia and Latin America over the last 30 years. Central Eurasia has many problems, but also great opportunities for freedom, growth and prosperity. The international community and the countries of the region will only realize these opportunities if we work shoulder-to-shoulder with each other and cooperate to make these visions a reality.